The ag markets have been on a roller coaster in 2025, with a lot of the volatility caused by the Trump administration's implementation of tariffs, which led to some major buyers not buying U.S. crops, including most notably China. But Tanner Ehmke, CoBank lead economist for grains and oil seeds, says things are looking up as China has now committed to purchasing soybeans.
After a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping in late October, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons from the current crop. Some of the soybeans have started to ship, but purchases remain below levels of what China has imported from the U.S. in recent years.
“China has stepped in with some soybean purchases, which have been long awaited. We'll see how long this sticks around though, that's the concern. It's been advertised that they'll buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans from the U.S. by the end of this year, we got 1 million down, 11 more to go. It's a pretty tight window,” Ehmke said.
Domestic demand for soybeans has increased, largely due to growing crush capacity in the U.S. So although there were sales lost this year when it came to China purchasing U.S. soybeans, the increase in domestic demand greatly helped producers. There have also been new markets for soybeans, including Mexico and Egypt.
Exports were up for corn this year, but with a record corn crop, the search for places to send the commodity continues. Wheat exports are up as well, but the U.S. is competing with other countries.
“The problem is just the number of bushels. Wheat is really competing against bigger world supply. Some of our biggest export competitors, especially south of the border, with Argentina, with Australia, have bigger export totals this year, and so that's going to be a headwind for us. So we're probably going to slow down our shipping base on wheat,” Ehmke said.
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