Thi Lan Le Dec 4, 2025, 4:30 AM

Are you getting a $2,000 tariff check? Here are Trump's latest comments

Trump discussed the potential checks in a two-hour-plus Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Dec. 2, during which he also called the "affordability" issue a "Democrat scam," and appeared to nod off.

"Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever, and we're going to be giving back refunds out of the tariffs, as we have taken in literally trillions of dollars," Trump said early in the meeting. "We're going to be giving a nice dividend to the people in addition to reducing debt."

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Tariff revenue could eventually be "so great," Trump said, that the government could cease levying income taxes. "Whether you get rid of it or just keep it around for fun or have it really low, much lower than it is now, but you will not be paying income taxes," he said.

As for projected tariff revenue, the Congressional Budget Office on Nov. 15 reduced its projections from $3.3 trillion in tariff revenue over the next decade to $2.5 trillion. That would result in an additional $500 billion in debt interest payments, for a total of $3 trillion in value to the government.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
©Andrew Caballero-Reynolds, AFP via Getty Images
President Donald Trump, flanked by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks during a Cabinet Meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House in Washington, DC on Dec. 2, 2025.

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But critics of the administration's tariff plan question whether the dividend refunds make good economic sense, in part because tariff revenue is uncertain – and refunds would be costly.

The non-partisan, not-for-profit The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates Trump's tariffs will raise about $300 billion per year, while tariff dividends would cost about $600 billion per round, the organization estimates. "Additional tariff revenue should be used to reduce deficits … instead of passing that revenue onto taxpayers in the form of cash dividends," the organization says.

Are we getting $2,000 tariff dividend checks?

That remains to be seen. President Trump has been talking about a dividend rebate since July, saying revenue from tariffs, which the president began instituting in March and April, could lead to "a little rebate, but the big thing we want to do is pay down debt."

Last month, Trump said tariff dividend checks would be issued "probably in the middle of next year," amounting to "thousands of dollars for individuals of moderate income, middle income."

But the plan could be cost-prohibitive and there may not be as much tariff revenue as expected, according to estimates from the Tax Foundation, another non-partisan, non-profit group. Over the next decade, Trump’s tariffs will raise $2.1 trillion in revenue, but that dips to $1.6 trillion after accounting for foreign retaliation and other negative economic effects.

The tariffs could also be struck down by the Supreme Court, which seemed to question whether Trump has the power to impose tariffs while listening to arguments on Nov. 5.

Should tariffs remain in place, any refund would require some legislation, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Maria Bartiromo on Fox News' "Sunday Morning Futures" on Nov. 16.

Why does President Trump want to issue tariff checks?

Perhaps because Americans have helped pay for tariffs. Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Nov. 14 that tariffs "may in some cases," raise prices, after signing an executive order exempting certain agriculture products – including bananas, coffee and beef – from reciprocal tariffs he imposed on April 2.

But the cost of tariffs, Trump said, have "to a large extent … been borne by other countries."

Still, the Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs amount to a tax increase of $1,100 per U.S. household in 2025 and $1,400 in 2026.

Rather than issue dividends, "a better way to provide relief would be to simply repeal the tariffs altogether," the group has said.

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Thi Lan Le
Thi Lan Le