Ethereum’s options market signals a clear shift back toward medium-term optimism. While traders continue to respect near-term turbulence, positioning across the curve has tilted decisively toward upside into 2025.
The strongest signal is the build-up of call exposure in the $5,000-$7,000 region. This activity is anchored around the pivotal 26 Dec 2025 expiry, which now accounts for the bulk of ETH’s macro options risk.
The 2025 macro anchor
According to Deribit data, the December 2025 expiry has become the primary destination for traders expressing directional conviction. Calls now total roughly 818,000 contracts against 372,000 puts, representing about $2.6bn of upside exposure compared with $1.2bn of downside protection.
With a put/call ratio near 0.45, the structure leans clearly bullish. Open interest is concentrated across a broad $5,000-$7,000 band, with the single largest cluster at $6,500. The message is straightforward. Traders expect ETH to trade materially higher a year from now rather than simply holding current levels.
Hedging the support corridor
Despite this upside bias, traders have not abandoned protection. Put demand is clustered around $2,000-$3,000, with $2,500 representing the largest single line.
With spot trading near $3,203, this defines the market’s perceived support zone. It is a level traders are willing to insure, even while positioning for a broader recovery.
Volatility and skew reset
Short-dated implied volatility (IV) has normalized sharply since the late-November deleveraging. One-week and one-month at-the-money IV now sit near 65% and 66%, broadly in line with realized volatility of roughly 69%. With the volatility risk premium slightly negative, the front end of the curve no longer carries a panic surcharge.
Skew remains marginally negative, reflecting a lingering preference for puts over calls of equal delta. Yet both 7-day and 30-day skew have rebounded significantly from last month’s capitulation levels. Traders are still paying for protection, but they are no longer paying distressed prices. The market has shifted from fear to caution.
The term structure tells a similar story. Short-dated implied vol is still elevated, while maturities into mid-2026 remain anchored around the mid-60% range. The slight backwardation between December 2025 and early 2026 suggests traders expect volatility to settle as macro conditions become clearer.
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