Zcash (ZEC) has delivered its most volatile trading month of the year, capping a nearly 1,000% year-to-date run with a vertical move from $400 to over $700 in November.
However, the rally is now reversing as onchain demand cools and retail speculation floods derivatives markets. The privacy coin, long a target for regulatory hawks, is confronting the limits of a breakout driven by scarcity, ETF hype and corporate treasury adoption.
With futures markets overheating and several large holders trimming exposure, November’s whipsaw action risks turning into a deeper correction.
Shielded growth stalls
The core driver of Zcash’s early-November breakout was a historic run-up in shielded supply. Tokens locked in Orchard, the network’s main privacy pool, jumped to around 4.5mn ZEC in early November. This effectively removed supply from circulation, fuelling the squeeze to yearly highs.
But that trend has flatlined. Protected balances have stalled, and the older Sapling pool is shrinking as users unshield, signalling fading demand for actual private transactions. This loss of momentum undermines the rally’s structural foundation, as supply burn is central to ZEC’s valuation narrative.
Institutional "Treasury" plays
November brought a wave of unorthodox institutional interest. Nasdaq-listed Reliance Global Group (RELI) announced a complete treasury conversion into ZEC this week, describing it as the "most compelling" option for a corporate digital treasury.
Simultaneously, Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH), the Winklevoss-backed firm formerly known as Leap Therapeutics, purchased an additional $18mn in ZEC, bringing its total control to roughly 1.4% of the network’s supply. While these moves validate ZEC as an institutional asset, such concentration amplifies downside volatility if these new whales decide to de-risk.
NEAR execution layer
A significant portion of Zcash’s recent volume is running through NEAR Protocol, which has become the de facto execution layer for shielded ZEC via its "Intents" framework and the Zashi wallet.
Since the integration, NEAR Intents has processed hundreds of millions of dollars in ZEC transactions, with the asset representing ~15% of the protocol’s recent daily volume. This tight coupling deepens liquidity but exposes ZEC to external risks: any congestion or fee spikes on NEAR now feed directly into Zcash’s volatility.
Derivatives heat up
Despite the slowdown in onchain demand, retail speculation has surged. ZEC futures open interest has jumped from ~$20mn in September to over $1.4bn by late November.
This leverage comes as the regulatory narrative shifts. Grayscale’s recent filing to convert its Zcash Trust into an ETF has attracted heightened scrutiny. While the filing sparked the initial rally, it also risks triggering policy tightening that could spill over into the broader privacy sector.
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